Decision Book
2026-07-25SPY 738.93
Core gateRisk-onSPY +6.03% vs 200d
ConfirmationOffSPY -0.80% vs 50d
Bitcoin gate0%BTC vs 200d
TapeStage 4elevated tail risk (~2× left-tail)
MacroStage 1all clear / intact
Economic regimeReflation35% · transition: Stagflation 27%
01

Core

strategic · monthly clock
Equities60%
Gold25%
Bitcoin0%
Cash15%
02

Equity sleeve

6-mo momentum rank · top-6 · equal-weightalt SPY / VT
ETFSector6-mo21dHeld
XLEEnergy+22.7%+11.3%
XLKTechnology+21.5%-3.9%
IYRReal Estate+12.1%+4.0%
XLIIndustrials+10.7%+1.4%
XLUUtilities+9.1%+1.6%
XLFFinancials+5.2%+4.8%
XLBMaterials+4.0%+0.2%
XLVHealthcare+3.1%+6.0%
XLPStaples+2.8%-0.4%
XLCCommunications-8.3%-0.2%
XLYDiscretionary-10.6%-4.9%
03

Entry — the rail

in zone 12 / 83 · incl 47 coiled ETFsat/below rail +4.65% vs extended +2.72% @63dclick a header to sort
🌀 Coiled ETFs — squeeze compression (daily·weekly %) · 17
ETFCoil6-mo21dRailvs railσVolR/Rρ SPYEntry
IWS≈ 99·8%+12%+2%163.86+1.6%+1.6213%0.900.67in-coil
IWN≈ 100·10%+12%+1%218.55+1.3%+1.1617%0.660.67in-coil
AVUV≈ 91·37%+14%+2%123.43+1.5%+1.3717%0.810.54in-coil
MGV≈ 98·0%+12%+1%161.64+1.6%+1.9510%1.210.62in-coil
DXJ≈ 91·81%+14%+3%173.92+1.8%+1.1318%0.800.67in-coil
VTV≈ 99·0%+12%+2%216.90+1.9%+2.2610%1.150.61in-coil
VBR≈ 98·17%+8%+2%240.53+1.5%+1.3115%0.550.61in-coil
IJR≈ 96·4%+11%+0%143.93+0.6%+0.5417%0.650.67in-coil
IJH≈ 94·12%+8%+0%75.31+0.6%+0.5016%0.510.78in-coil
VB≈ 93·13%+7%-0%295.35-0.0%-0.0116%0.410.81in-coil
MDY≈ 93·12%+8%-0%686.84+0.6%+0.4616%0.500.78in-coil
EWP≈ 99·58%+9%+2%58.78+1.6%+1.1119%0.460.61in-coil
IWM≈ 96·6%+8%-2%292.68-0.5%-0.3919%0.420.78in-coil
RSP≈ 95·10%+7%+2%211.49+1.0%+1.0512%0.630.69in-coil
VIG≈ 99·10%+7%+2%236.04+1.1%+1.5510%0.690.68in-coil
VO≈ 100·10%+8%+1%79.94+0.8%+0.8013%0.610.81in-coil
ARGT92·87%-4%+3%93.50-0.4%-0.1937%-0.110.56in-coil
Pullback to a RISING rail — buy · 6
ETFCoil6-mo21dRailvs railσVolR/Rρ SPYAction
BUG+27%+11%37.46+0.9%+0.2233%0.840.31buy
CIBR+25%+6%88.25+0.2%+0.0626%0.980.43buy
XBI+14%+1%149.72+0.5%+0.1727%0.540.35buy
EWO+13%-0%41.71+0.2%+0.1620%0.630.70buy
QUAL≈9+7%+2%216.42+0.2%+0.2112%0.590.91buy
DIA≈9+5%+0%517.86+0.2%+0.1812%0.450.74buy
Not a setup — falling rails, weak, extended · 44
ETFCoil6-mo21dRailvs railσVolR/Rρ SPYAction
EWY+40%-17%180.40-9.7%-1.8852%0.770.72no
XSD+36%-16%549.50-10.0%-2.0244%0.820.72no
SOXX+51%-12%559.10-5.7%-1.1443%1.190.75no
CHAT+34%-13%89.16-7.1%-1.7438%0.900.77no
SMH+39%-9%589.08-4.7%-1.1337%1.050.78no
IRBO+29%-10%70.13-4.9%-1.3836%0.810.80no
EWT+44%-6%101.21-3.2%-1.0630%1.470.79no
QTUM+17%-13%150.33-7.2%-2.4331%0.560.81no
IDGT+33%-6%117.92-3.1%-1.3722%1.480.66no
WGMI+14%-20%57.55-6.9%-0.9279%0.180.55no
XLK+22%-4%180.61-2.6%-1.0025%0.870.84no
DTCR+19%-9%29.14-3.5%-1.4424%0.780.76no
MTUM+20%-7%314.78-2.7%-0.8524%0.810.75no
VGT+20%-2%115.18-1.6%-0.7024%0.860.86no
OIH+15%+5%389.24+0.6%+0.2529%0.500.19no
USO+90%+29%122.13+11.9%+2.8246%1.98-0.32no
XOP+30%+14%165.10+5.4%+2.0628%1.06-0.36no
FCG+20%+9%28.03+3.9%+1.6127%0.75-0.35no
THD+15%+5%72.13+1.0%+0.8922%0.650.78no
WEAT+24%+13%23.86+5.7%+2.3222%1.08-0.03no
PAVE★12+12%-1%56.93+1.3%+0.7320%0.580.60no
XLE+23%+11%56.64+5.3%+2.6521%1.08-0.39no
VDE+23%+11%160.04+5.1%+2.6321%1.09-0.37no
GREK≈9+7%+3%75.48+2.3%+1.1025%0.280.74no
PDBC+27%+14%17.08+5.1%+3.1919%1.43-0.12no
DBC+27%+14%28.62+5.2%+3.2419%1.41-0.14no
NORW+17%+7%33.77+2.6%+1.9417%0.990.25no
MLPX+24%+5%75.03+2.8%+1.7215%1.57-0.28no
XLI≈9+11%+1%179.40+1.8%+1.1217%0.640.61no
EWS+13%+7%30.61+3.4%+2.5516%0.810.57no
XLRE+12%+3%44.68+2.8%+2.0614%0.86-0.12no
VNQ+13%+4%97.82+3.1%+2.2014%0.91-0.07no
SOYB+19%+9%25.16+4.5%+4.2613%1.43-0.09no
SCHD+15%+5%32.41+2.7%+2.4611%1.360.09no
IWD≈9+13%+3%243.86+1.8%+2.1111%1.190.71no
AMLP+14%+9%53.14+3.5%+2.5812%1.13-0.28no
EWU★12+5%+4%46.57+1.4%+1.2315%0.320.47no
XLV≈9+3%+6%157.62+3.1%+1.8716%0.20-0.14no
VYM★12+10%+3%159.56+1.7%+2.1610%0.980.58no
SPYV≈9+7%+2%61.25+1.1%+1.3710%0.690.59no
IVE≈9+7%+2%228.68+1.2%+1.4510%0.700.59no
SDY≈9+7%+3%152.78+1.9%+1.6711%0.620.06no
DGRO≈9+10%+3%76.23+2.1%+2.4310%1.010.32no
JEPI≈9+0%+1%56.40+0.7%+1.148%0.000.34no
Rail = trend anchor; the Rail column is your limit price. σ = vol-adjusted distance. R/R = 6-mo return ÷ ann. vol (sleeve metric — favors smooth trenders). ρ = 63d corr to SPY; a second 0.9-ρ position is the same trade twice.

Actionable stock book

lane-selected + all four gates · candidates, not recorded positions
Approved setups
JBHT⚔ VCP breakout · all four gates · MaxAvg21 +7.9%
ROK⚔ WTR birth · all four gates · MaxAvg21 +5.8%

Stock watchlist

monitor only · not actionable yet
Next in line
VCYTall four gates · awaiting lane confirmation · ⚡ER 4d (10/10 beats) · MaxAvg21 +10.9%
DLTRall four gates · awaiting lane confirmation · MaxAvg21 +10.9%
🐘

Stock setup inventory

actionable book + monitored candidatesordered by MaxAvg21 within tier
⭐ IN ACTIONABLE BOOK — picked by a backtested lane AND all four gates · 2
TickerClassStageCrossSinceRSσVolMaxAvg21P>10%ADVFlagsBuy≤StopMiss
JBHTD▲ contMID·entry183d+76%96·+30pp+0.8639%+7.9%28%$311M⚔VCP breakout 💎4280.77−7.6%
ROKD▲ contEARLY·entry51d+3%76·+2pp+0.0130%+5.8%19%$422M⚔WTR birth 💎 MACD▼4462.07−5.9%
🎯 WATCHLIST — all four gates, awaiting lane confirmation · 12
TickerClassStageCrossSinceRSσVolMaxAvg21P>10%ADVFlagsBuy≤StopMiss
VCYTD▲ contEARLY·dip44d+20%86·+22pp+0.6761%+10.9%38%$69M💎 ⚡ER 4d (10/10 beats) MACD▼454.76−8.1%
DLTRD▲ contEARLY·entry18d+0%53·-13pp+0.4041%+10.9%38%$439M💎 MACD▼4118.76−10.4%
EBAYD▲ contEARLY·entry125d+18%73·+10pp-0.6339%+9.2%35%$369M💎 ⚡ER 10d (10/10 beats) MACD▼4111.19−8.3%
ZBRAD▲ contEARLY·entry44d+3%23·-2pp+0.4543%+7.9%28%$180M💎 MACD▼4255.53−9.5%
GWWD▲ contEARLY·above34143d+30%99·+23pp+1.3525%+5.4%16%$394M💎 MACD▼41342.01−5.4%
IEXD▲ contEARLY·entry56d+26%84·+6pp+0.5026%+4.8%12%$149M💎 ⚡ER 3d (10/10 beats) MACD▼4220.93−5.3%
JCID★ coilEARLY·entry299d+48%66·+18pp+0.2829%+4.7%12%$587M💎 ⚡ER 3d (9/10 beats)4142.19−8.4%
MARD▲ contEARLY·entry176d+35%77·+9pp+0.1727%+4.7%12%$536M💎4372.99−5.5%
AMED★ coilEARLY·above3458d+32%70·+2pp+1.4523%+4.7%12%$233M💎4234.62−5.2%
TDYD★ coilEARLY·above341d+1%56·-2pp+0.9026%+4.7%12%$283M💎4634.88−8.7%
KOD★ coilEARLY·entry173d+14%60·+8pp+0.2818%+3.5%4%$1499M💎 ⚡ER 2d (9/10 beats) MACD▼481.76−5.2%
NDSND★ coilEARLY·entry45d+34%65·+1pp+0.9821%+2.8%3%$106M💎4289.74−8.6%
🔷 WATCHLIST — three gates · 17
TickerClassStageCrossSinceRSσVolMaxAvg21P>10%ADVFlagsBuy≤StopMiss
MRKD★ coilMID·above3420d+59%84·+13pp+2.1328%+4.8%12%$1206M⚔COIL —3123.86−6.4%QUAL
AMGND★ coilEARLY·above3413d+3%66·+2pp+2.0327%+4.8%12%$836M⚔COIL —3358.71−5.7%QUAL
CNCD▲ contEARLY·entry51d+13%89·+32pp-0.2551%+12.8%45%$281M⚡ER 2d (9/10 beats) MACD▼364.03−6.4%QUAL
FDXD▲ contMID·entry263d+107%86·+49pp+0.6139%+10.9%38%$579MMACD▼3310.27−6.1%QUAL
ILMND▲ cont49d97·+19pp+2.0648%+10.9%38%$329M💎 ⚡ER 4d (9/10 beats) MACD▼3179.39−9.2%STAGE
UNHD▲ contEARLY·entry59d+7%92·+12pp+0.5040%+10.9%38%$2553MMACD▼3414.28−7.7%QUAL
BAXD▲ contEARLY·above3429d+2%32·+4pp+1.2648%+10.9%38%$129M⚡ER 4d (8/10 beats) MACD▼321.37−10.8%QUAL
LLYD▲ contEARLY·above3436d+9%94·+3pp+1.2138%+10.9%38%$3351M⚡ER 10d (9/10 beats) MACD▼31151.99−12.7%QUAL
MEDPD▲ cont15d69·-8pp+3.0745%+10.9%38%$204M💎3520.28−5.4%STAGE
LAMRD▲ contEARLY·entry164d+33%95·+17pp+1.1223%+5.4%16%$98MMACD▼3155.98−4.9%QUAL
DGXD★ coil18d96·+18pp+2.7924%+4.8%12%$234M💎3207.56−8.0%STAGE
FITBD▲ contEARLY·above3447d+37%92·+6pp+1.3026%+4.8%12%$385MMACD▼355.64−5.9%QUAL
CFGD▲ contMID·above3456d+56%93·+6pp+1.2927%+4.8%12%$367MMACD▼369.52−6.4%QUAL
KVUED▲ contEARLY·entry23d+2%41·+4pp+1.2733%+4.8%12%$358MMACD▼318.74−5.6%QUAL
EBFD★ coilEARLY·entry8d+18%54·+3pp+1.2422%+4.8%12%$3M💎 MACD▼321.09−11.1%LIQ
LD★ coilMID·above3415d+100%74·+8pp+2.2816%+3.5%4%$91MMACD▼3112.83−4.7%QUAL
PNCD▲ contEARLY·above3449d+21%88·+6pp+1.5222%+3.5%4%$534MMACD▼3243.55−4.9%QUAL
⚡ LOWER confidence — two gates or late-stage · 41
TickerClassStageCrossSinceRSσVolMaxAvg21P>10%ADVFlagsBuy≤StopMiss
HWMD★ coilLATE·cigar663d+450%100·+25pp+2.1231%+5.4%16%$805M⚔VCP breakout 💎3272.11−7.0%STAGE
JPMD▲ cont53d95·+9pp+2.6722%+3.5%4%$3510M⚔COIL —2333.02−5.4%QUAL,STAGE
ASMLD▲ contLATE·cigar213d+133%82·+19pp-0.1145%+12.8%45%$3634M💎 MACD▼31764.72−10.3%STAGE
ICHRD▲ contLATE·cigar133d+175%74·+154pp-0.21100%+12.8%45%$116MMACD▼288.49−26.7%QUAL,STAGE
DELLD▲ contLATE·cigar92d+155%95·+267pp+1.2069%+10.9%38%$2975M💎 MACD▼ ⚠️stretch3400.12−27.0%STAGE
AMDD▲ contLATE·cigar66d+50%87·+98pp+0.2369%+10.9%38%$15033M💎 MACD▼3513.65−26.9%STAGE
ATID▲ contLATE·cigar185d+162%96·+53pp+1.1544%+10.9%38%$299M💎3188.41−10.3%STAGE
ATEXD▲ contLATE·cigar141d+272%85·+280pp+0.3660%+10.9%38%$49MMACD▼ ⚠️stretch291.23−20.2%QUAL,STAGE
FTNTD▲ contLATE·cigar95d+34%86·+89pp+0.2745%+10.9%38%$796M⚡ER 3d (10/10 beats) MACD▼2150.57−9.1%QUAL,STAGE
NESRD★ coilLATE·cigar247d+190%91·+30pp+0.3153%+10.9%38%$65MMACD▼227.18−12.9%QUAL,STAGE
AXSMD▲ contLATE·cigar57d+104%90·+21pp+0.4542%+10.9%38%$275MMACD▼2236.62−12.0%QUAL,STAGE
IBKRD▲ contLATE·cigar58d+80%84·+12pp+0.1238%+10.9%38%$414MMACD▼291.34−14.2%QUAL,STAGE
ADPTD▲ contLATE·cigar30d+6%95·+9pp+1.6469%+10.9%38%$65MMACD▼220.15−14.5%QUAL,STAGE
NTRAD▲ contLATE·cigar37d-6%86·+0pp+0.6744%+10.9%38%$359MMACD▼2254.95−10.1%QUAL,STAGE
ARQTD★ coilLATE·cigar16d+0%61·-5pp+0.7957%+10.9%38%$40M⚡ER 10d (8/10 beats) MACD▼226.34−11.7%QUAL,STAGE
TPRD★ coilLATE·cigar13d+1%54·+3pp+0.0541%+9.6%35%$363M💎3142.38−6.4%STAGE
PRED★ coilMID·entry20d+82%62·-8pp-0.2189%+9.2%35%$5M219.23−15.3%QUAL,LIQ
FSLYD★ coil42·+108pp+0.48118%+8.8%30%$99M⚡ER 10d (9/10 beats) MACD▼219.53−25.4%QUAL,STAGE
LASRD★ coil76·+38pp+0.1785%+8.8%30%$93M268.86−25.1%QUAL,STAGE
XPOD★ coilLATE·cigar281d+61%75·+35pp+0.4045%+8.8%30%$220M⚡ER 4d (10/10 beats)2210.26−9.9%QUAL,STAGE
DXPED★ coilLATE·cigar126d+30%84·+20pp+0.6252%+8.8%30%$25M💎 ⚠️ ER 10d2164.44−19.1%CAT,STAGE
ANETD★ coilLATE·cigar71d+6%80·+18pp+0.4955%+8.8%30%$1376MMACD▼2169.25−20.3%QUAL,STAGE
CGOND★ coilLATE·cigar1d+163%82·+17pp+0.2157%+8.8%30%$84MMACD▼268.55−13.2%QUAL,STAGE
TECKD★ coil55d74·+10pp+0.2948%+8.8%30%$199M259.47−10.4%QUAL,STAGE
CHHD★ coilEARLY·entry125d+5%29·-3pp+0.1937%+8.8%30%$70M⚠️ ER 10d MACD▼2109.75−15.9%QUAL,CAT
MNSTD▲ cont43d83·+8pp-0.2326%+7.0%26%$586MMACD▼293.98−5.6%QUAL,STAGE
MSD▲ cont57d80·+11pp-0.0827%+5.8%19%$1293MMACD▼2215.03−8.3%QUAL,STAGE
CVSD▲ cont53d98·+24pp+2.0631%+5.4%16%$781M⚡ER 10d (8/10 beats) MACD▼2102.6−7.8%QUAL,STAGE
BAPD▲ contLATE·cigar25d+105%90·+7pp+0.9634%+5.4%16%$113MMACD▼2378.08−23.3%QUAL,STAGE
INCYD▲ contEARLY·above3434d+3%97·+4pp+1.9633%+5.4%16%$195M⚠️ ER 2d MACD▼2111.46−6.7%QUAL,CAT
PEND▲ contWK-DOWN+9%50·-19pp+0.0233%+5.4%16%$128M2318.69−1.4%QUAL,STAGE
BHPD▲ cont287d78·+24pp+0.1933%+4.8%12%$197M283.25−7.5%QUAL,STAGE
CTVAD★ coil4d+17.7pp+2.7224%+4.8%12%$290M⚡ER 4d (8/10 beats)283.98−5.4%QUAL,STAGE
MGAD▲ contMID·entry281d+62%71·+17pp+0.2936%+4.8%12%$84M⚠️ ER 5d265.13−13.0%QUAL,CAT
MOD★ coilEARLY·entry117d+10%74·+14pp+0.6323%+4.8%12%$515M⚠️ ER 4d MACD▼271.89−6.0%QUAL,CAT
PFGD▲ cont60d87·+13pp+0.1422%+4.8%12%$167M💎 ⚠️ ER 1d MACD▼2109.05−5.6%CAT,STAGE
PHD★ coilWK-DOWN10d+42%62·-2pp+1.6825%+4.7%12%$557M💎3947.4−6.1%STAGE
COKED★ coil51·+16pp+0.3436%+4.7%12%$107M⚡ER 3d (9/10 beats)2182.19−23.7%QUAL,STAGE
SPGD▲ cont270d100·+18pp+2.0920%+3.5%4%$458MMACD▼2220.24−5.0%QUAL,STAGE
MPLXD★ coilLATE·cigar18d+142%52·+2pp+1.9816%+3.5%4%$74M256.71−11.3%QUAL,STAGE
ATOD★ coilWK-DOWN+61%31·+2pp+1.0616%+2.8%3%$200M⚡ER 10d (9/10 beats)2175.76−4.6%QUAL,STAGE
Dropped on quality · 38
F, GM, HUT, XEL, ETR, CNP, DNTH, NKTR, NUVB, TGB, HPE, WMB, RVMD, D, MDGL, AEE, EVRG, ROIV, PRAX, SLS, TWST, ORKA, SYRE, PNW, DFTX, COGT, ERAS, KYMR, PCVX, RLAY, ELVN, TRVI, IMVT, NRIX, GLUE, KOD, CLYM, CCO
MaxAvg21 = average best point reached within 21 days across the name's historical cohort cell (n=61k+) — an average of path highs, not a realizable expected return. P>10% = share of that cell reaching +10% in 21d. ★ = gates of 4 (quality · catalyst · stage · liquidity). Buy≤ = the rail (limit price) · Stop from the exit engine. Click any header to re-sort.
04

Tactical — stop-filtered lanes

in 🐘 queue: ROK (4★), HWM (3★), JBHT (4★), AMGN (3★), JPM (2★), MRK (3★)
#TickerPxLaneRStopRead
1XLU46.29COIL3.4×−5.8%📈 RS-lead ↗ 1.4σ off rail MACD ↑ · 5d +2.5%
2COF202.84VCP breakout3.4×−5.9%📉 lagging ◦ 0.5σ off rail R:R 3.4 · quality 86 · 9d old
3RYTM102.10SQZ ignition3.1×−9.7%⚠️ weak-fund 📉 lagging 🎯 0.3σ below rail fired 07-24 · mom +15%
4XP16.69VCP breakout3.3×−6.0%📉 lagging ◦ 0.2σ off rail R:R 3.3 · quality 82 · 2d old
5CGNX62.05WTR birth3.5×−8.5%💎 quality 🔻 below falling 34EMA 🎯 0.7σ below rail weekly 12>30 cross + pullback · trend-ladder 3/3
6JETS30.10WTR birth5.2×−5.7%🔻 below falling 34EMA 🎯 0.5σ below rail weekly 12>30 cross + pullback · trend-ladder 3/3