Decision Brief
2026-09-26 · after closeFull Decision Book →SPY 771.35
Automatic — not reviewed · market data 2026-09-25. Page built by the daily script; research, not executed trades.
Today’s decision stack

Start with TARS. Check the entry.

No crown is actionable by default. The page separates primary selection, setup attention, and entry timing.

3 primary actions0 fresh crowns0 worked / no chase4 moonshots in lab
Stock model gate enabledSPY above 50-dayModel mix Stocks 60% / Gold 25% / BTC 15% / Cash 0%
Automatic shortlist

Review first

screened candidates, not verified entries
no agent review assumed

01
TARSCMO rebound
CMO -67 above a rising trend · RS +14pp
fundamentals unavailable
rebound entry
$75.69 · 10d
OOS observed
ATR 3.8%
02
BAXCMO rebound
CMO -57 above a rising trend · RS +0pp
fundamentals unavailable
rebound entry
$23.37 · 10d
OOS observed
ATR 3.1%
03
ROKCOIL confluence
4/4 gates · MaxAvg21 4.7% · P(+10%) 12%
fundamentals unavailable
limit near rail
$434.15 · 21d
Path cohort
published stop 6.0%
More setups · crowns, moonshots and watchlist
Attention radar

Crown lifecycle

entry quality, not a universal score
experimental until forward evidence matures

FreshEntry is near the trigger; pilot territory.
No names in this state today.
ArmedInteresting now, but the trigger still matters.
UMACARMED CONVEX
👑 Convex Rearm
Small defined-risk pilot only · catalyst outcome is unknowable
20d +0.2% · vs 200d +31.0% · RS Δ10d +23.2pp
fundamentals unavailable
SSRMARMED CONVEX
👑 Convex Rearm
Small defined-risk pilot only · catalyst outcome is unknowable
20d -6.0% · vs 200d +23.2% · RS Δ10d -20.7pp
fundamentals unavailable
CPERARMED
👑 Rebase
Set an alert · buy only the breakout or first quiet pullback
20d +1.5% · vs 200d +9.1% · RS Δ10d +6.1pp
fundamentals unavailable
DAPPARMED
👑 Rebase
Set an alert · buy only the breakout or first quiet pullback
20d +6.5% · vs 200d +12.6% · RS Δ10d +5.3pp
fundamentals unavailable
Worked / no chaseThe signal paid. Ownership and fresh entry are different decisions.
No names in this state today.
Wait / rearmKeep the alert; withhold fresh capital.
ARISWAIT
👑 Convex Rearm
Relative strength is not confirming · no fresh risk
20d -9.6% · vs 200d +20.5% · RS Δ10d -11.7pp
fundamentals unavailable
Long-tail lab

Moonshots

separate mandate · trigger-only
not automatically promoted into the shortlist

TEAMARMED
RS +133pp · vol 51% · 2d coil
trigger only
fundamentals unavailable
PBFARMED
RS +65pp · vol 56% · 4d coil
trigger only
profitable + growing · revenue +14% YoY · net margin +4% · FCF margin +2% · F-score 8/9
GTLBARMED
RS +55pp · vol 54% · 2d coil
trigger only
loss-making / growing · revenue +23% YoY · net margin -5% · FCF margin +20% · F-score 3/9
PDARMED
RS +52pp · vol 51% · 1d coil
trigger only
fundamentals unavailable
Next bench

Watch next

primary families · better trigger required

ROST
COIL confluence
4/4 gates · MaxAvg21 5.2% · P(+10%) 14%
fundamentals unavailable
Path cohort
ARCT
Trend rearm
RS +95pp · sector excess +95pp · 6d coil
fundamentals unavailable
Backtest only
FET
Armed squeeze
RS +58pp · sector excess +48pp · 10d coil
fundamentals unavailable
Backtest only
ABUS
CMO rebound
CMO -60 above a rising trend · RS +0pp
fundamentals unavailable
OOS observed
JHX
CMO rebound
CMO -54 above a rising trend · RS -8pp
fundamentals unavailable
OOS observed
Filtered Focused Queue · reviewed separately from runners

ULTA · Base-hit candidate · 10 sessions / Tight-risk swing · 20 sessions · needs entry review

CIBR · Tight-risk swing · 20 sessions · needs entry review

Promising small historical cohorts, not individual win odds. Original stops determine eligibility; current entry and event checks can still reject a name.

Cross-sectional result

Actual decision queue

conditional tickets · no market orders

EWJ · Breakout Trigger

armed compression; absolute trend and separate SPY-relative trend aligned. Entry above 99.01; do not pay above 99.77. Invalidate below 95.11 (3.9% structural risk).

SOYB · Breakout Trigger

armed compression; absolute trend and separate SPY-relative trend aligned. Entry above 28.19; do not pay above 28.36. Invalidate below 27.46 (2.6% structural risk).

Do not overlook · quiet setups and cross-asset coverage

Needs an explicit review or pass reason: ARKK, BTCUSD, CORN, ETHUSD, EWJ, FDN, QQQ, QQQM, SMH, SOLUSD, VUG, XLK

Data through 2026-09-25. Attention queue, not new buy signals. Armed and released are different stages; liquidity order is not a risk-adjusted-return ranking. No live entry or cheap options implied.

EWJ · ARMED · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +2.21%

FDN · ARMED · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day -0.32%

CORN · ARMED · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +0.25%

QQQ · RELEASED_UP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +0.46% · release 4 bars ago (not a fresh entry verdict)

SMH · RELEASED_UP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +1.01% · release 4 bars ago (not a fresh entry verdict)

QQQM · RELEASED_UP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +0.46% · release 4 bars ago (not a fresh entry verdict)

VUG · RELEASED_UP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +0.54% · release 4 bars ago (not a fresh entry verdict)

ARKK · RELEASED_UP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day -1.01% · release 4 bars ago (not a fresh entry verdict)

BTCUSD · NO_COMPRESSION_SETUP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day -0.73%

ETHUSD · RELEASED_UP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day -0.23% · release 4 bars ago (not a fresh entry verdict)

SOLUSD · MISSING_OR_INVALID

XLK · NO_COMPRESSION_SETUP · rising long-term trend · above relative baseline · day +0.80%

Coverage: 272 instruments; 6 data gaps. Full checks and gaps are retained in the Brief data.

Follow-through

What happened to our earlier picks?

Close data through 2026-09-25
latest mentions first · winners AND losers

All 117 tracked ideas · including older winners and losers
Squeeze focus · research candidates

Raw payoff ranks, not buy signals or win probabilities. Daily coils and releases are separate from weekly setups. Event and entry checks still required.

DOC · DAILY_ARMED · family rank 1 · score 0.78

RDW · DAILY_ARMED · family rank 2 · score 0.75

SKE · DAILY_ARMED · family rank 3 · score 0.74

AES · DAILY_FIRED · family rank 1 · score 1.26

GSAT · DAILY_FIRED · family rank 2 · score 0.97

GEV · DAILY_FIRED · family rank 3 · score 0.91

AMZN · HTF_ARMED · family rank 1 · score 0.85

TT · HTF_ARMED · family rank 2 · score 0.83

AWK · HTF_ARMED · family rank 3 · score 0.80

EIX · HTF_FIRED · family rank 1 · score 0.84

PLD · HTF_FIRED · family rank 2 · score 0.84

ED · HTF_FIRED · family rank 3 · score 0.80

CGAU · HTF_REARMED · family rank 1 · score 0.74

FCX · HTF_REARMED · family rank 2 · score 0.73

TSLA · HTF_REARMED · family rank 3 · score 0.70

Market details · optional context

Background readings, not buy/sell signals. These labels do not set position size or change a trade's stop.

Price and leadership

3/5 gauges reporting · 0 red · 1 yellow · partial coverage · No scored warning-color changes

Research label: Stage 2

ReadingValueObservation dateNote
SPY vs 50DMA+1.3%2026-09-25—
SOX/SMH vs SPX RS (20d MA trend 5d)+1.82%2026-09-25—
New 52w highs—Unavailable—
IPO ETF vs 50DMA+0.3%2026-09-25—
Margin debt 3-mo Δ (Phase 2)—Unavailable—

Economy

3/3 domains reporting · 0 red · 1 yellow · Credit: green / Labor: yellow / Inflation: green · No scored warning-color changes

Research label: Stage 2

ReadingValueObservation dateNote
HY OAS2.80%2026-09-24—
Initial Claims (4-wk avg) [multi-cond]202,250 (p75=227k · 3mo Δ -9.1%)2026-09-19—
Continuing Claims (4-wk avg) [multi-cond]1.74M (p75=1.92M · 3mo Δ -3.2%)2026-09-12—
Payrolls (3-mo avg MoM, k)+71k2026-08-01—
Core CPI YoY2.45%2026-08-01—
Treasury Withholding (matched 4w YoY; context)+4.44% YoY2026-09-24Context only. Tax calendar-sensitive; supporting context, not a regime vote.
Indeed Job Postings (3-mo Δ)+2.08% (idx 103.5)2026-09-18—
ADP Private Payrolls (3-mo avg MoM, k)+60k2026-08-01—
Payroll sensitivity (BLS+ADP)/2 + fixed QCEW adjustment; context-10k (raw avg +66k; assumed adjustment -75k)2026-08-01Context only. Fixed-adjustment scenario, not an independent jobs observation.
Part-time for Econ Reasons (1-month Δ, k)-414k (level 4390k)2026-08-01—

Economic backdrop

Reflation · 31% · transition: Stagflation 31%

Descriptive classifier output, not calibrated forecast odds. Stage history is retained for research; no demonstrated trading edge is implied by a stage number.

Risk notes and evidence
Ignore today · blocked, invalidated or no longer qualifying
ATAIPending Eli Lilly acquisition announced 2026-07-16: $6.75 cash plus a contingent value right worth up to $2.50. Price/volatility are merger-arbitrage mechanics, not an actionable squeeze or momentum setup.
CCOM&A arbitrage pin pattern — 30d range $2.35-2.41 (2.5% total), 0 days >2% move, volatility collapsed to 8% of historical. Classic tender-offer or fixed-ratio merger behavior. Not a tradeable squeeze despite mechanical signal hits.
XENEstop hit — exited by the rules
SFMstop hit — exited by the rules
PCGstop hit — exited by the rules
CASYstop hit — exited by the rules
CRSstop hit — exited by the rules
JBHTstop hit — exited by the rules
None
Evidence, definitions and rejected models

OOS observed

CMO: 56.6% positive at 10 sessions and +0.93pp beta-adjusted alpha in retrospective 2025–26 OOS. This is the only lane here with positive alpha in both recent folds, but it is not yet live-proven.

Backtest only

Continuation heuristic: +1.86pp alpha at 21 sessions and +7.08pp at 63 sessions for the historical top quintile. Promising, but tail-sensitive and not yet forward-proven.

Path cohort

Legacy MaxAvg/P(+10%) cells describe historical path payoff, not realizable alpha. XGBoost failed fold stability and is excluded from ranking. Moonshots remain experimental.

FMP fundamentals

Eight quarterly statements become current TTM versus prior TTM revenue, net margin and FCF margin. Dated Piotroski/Altman may tilt rank; growth and margins remain display-only until their own PIT outcomes mature. Biotech collaboration revenue is marked as potentially lumpy.

Research publication, not an execution record. Archived Brief selections are carried forward above; returns measure price observations, not fills. Focus means review first; it does not mean capital was deployed.